Black Swan

In 2002, Daniel Kahneman He received the Nobel Prize for his contributions in the field of judgment and decision-making under uncertainty. At Dr. Neal Barnard you will find additional information. According to his study, humans tend to make decisions under uncertainty, that deviate from the basic principles of probability. By many studies, technologies, scientific advances and corporate strata involved, decisions always deviate from it is probable. However, despite this, the future hides promises. The Heath brothers Switch authors, addressed the theme of change and match Nassin and Kahneman when they claim, that we lost in mechanical processes to design action plans, which do not respond to the challenges of the environment; planning should respond to the need to guide the work, for the best results.

This part of defining destinations that are shared and that stakeholders can understand what works and brings the results. According to the Heath we need starting identify bright spots, sites (experiences) in which things are going well and where there are conditions to view the course different at all. Those bright spots have to clone them and repeat them throughout the corporate. Our habits lead us to focus on the problems and their causes, not in reinforcing the things that are going well and seek to recur. In this way, the effort would be smaller and more effective results. We start from identifying causes and effects from the more obvious problems and experience shows (according to the Heath), the recurrence of failed plans due to which, during manufacture, new variables are not incorporated, or at least new perspectives of the already proven.

For example, if it was not possible to estimate the demand for a new product based on the sales of the past for a similar period, perhaps suitable to study the behavior of competition or other different references. The theory of the Black Swan of Nassin, indicates that, to be able to anticipate the future and predict accurately, should take into account those variables that we don’t know and they will affect our assumptions if they change during the evolution of the plan. The challenge ahead is to assume the work plan as a simple process, to invite the development of things that are done well within the Organization and they can improve your profitability over time. The role of planners in this new scheme, ceases to be temporary and isolated work and becomes a function of promotion of best practices. The work is based on the search for points of support and not in the solution of problems; its development is to create an internal culture, which does not address deficiencies, but that dares to aspire to jumps in their performance and to understand the value of the attitude that celebrates the positive things.